In 2018 we made 10 predictions on what the year would bring to the publishing industry (we’ve done the same for 2020). We enjoyed hearing your predictions and discussing ours in the comments and on social media. We believe it’s important to think about what the future holds when planning for the upcoming year. This year we’ve conducted reader polls, reached out to industry leaders and distilled our own thoughts on where things are going in 2019. And now, without further ado, here are our top ten publishing industry trends for 2019:
AMS ads will become an essential part of the author’s toolkit in 2019. More and more authors are reporting rising costs on Facebook ads. This, coupled with Amazon’s ambitions to grow its advertising business will make paying to get visibility on Amazon a pillar of every author’s marketing strategy. “There’s no question that Amazon ads are going to become even more important in 2019,” according to Mark Dawson, Mark Dawson’s Self Publishing Formula. “I would go as far as to say that they are indispensable if you want to maximize the chances of making your books visible, especially as – it seems likely – organic visibility is reduced in favor of paid placements.” Requiring authors to pay to play in the Amazon marketplace makes business sense for Amazon, and, as long as they maintain their dominant position as “the place to buy eBooks,” there’s currently not much that can be done to stop them.
If you’re not already familiar with AMS ads, it’s time to get downright friendly with them. Read articles on how AMS ads work, reach out to other authors and see what is going well (or not) for them, and test your own ads. There has been some blowback due to low conversion rates from AMS ads, but, according to Mark Dawson, “there is inventory to be sold on the Amazon advertising platform at a reasonable cost per click. I’m seeing a lot of authors spending huge amounts of money, but that often means they are carpet bombing the wrong targets…” Like any new technique, AMS ads take a while to get the hang of, and results will differ from author to author. Even if you’re not ready to jump in head-first to AMS ads, being knowledgeable about them will allow you to be ready when the time is right for you and your titles.
In an increasingly competitive marketplace, independent authors who invest the time and resources to create quality books will be rewarded by readers. This fall, Written Word Media conducted a survey of readers subscribed to our sites, FreeBooksy, Bargain Booksy, NewInBooks, Red Feather Romance, and Audio Thicket. A consistent issue raised by readers was the prevalence of typos and grammatical errors in independently published books. Low book quality can lead to poor reviews or readers giving up on a book or an author altogether. As Debbie Young says in her piece Why Book Marketing Doesn’t Trump Writing Craft, “Even if you have endless financial resources to invest heavily in great covers, professionally-written persuasive blurbs and extensive advertising, readers who do not enjoy what’s inside this enticing gift wrap will not come back for more.”
This publishing industry trend is pretty easy to wrap your head around. Start by doing an audit of any existing books you have. Check your reviews and see if anyone points out an editing mistake that you haven’t already fixed. If you can, respond to readers after you’ve fixed an error. This lets them know you want to give them the best material possible, and that you appreciate their feedback. It’s important to realize that not making an early investment in the quality of your book will actually cost you more in the long-run. It may feel painful to outlay dollars for high-quality book covers and a professional edit, but it will cost you significantly more in wasted advertising dollars and abandoned readers in the months and years that follow. Here’s how to avoid the 5 most common book cover mistakes whether working with a designer or creating the cover yourself.
More independent authors will see real income from book sales and will be able to quit their “day jobs.” Last April, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos revealed that over a thousand independent authors surpassed $100,000 in Kindle Direct Publishing (KDP) royalties in 2017. As self-publishing ebooks, physical books and audiobooks continues to get easier, with the help of distributors like Draft2Digital and Findaway Voices, the success of independent authors will continue to grow. Companies will continue to recognize the growth of independent authors, and more tools and platforms will be born to aid authors. Authors themselves will also continue to learn the skills needed to make it without a traditional publisher. The entire independent ecosystem will be strengthened, and successful authors will see the rewards of increased royalties and freedom.
2019 is a year packed with potential. Perhaps more than ever, it has been possible to make a living solely off of writing. If this is your goal, consider going all in this year. Research how other authors have built successful writing businesses, make a plan and go for it!
Yep, this debate is only going to get more intense. In 2019, the differences between wide and exclusive releases will increase, as well as the debate around the two options. We heard plenty of different opinions on where this publishing industry trend is going, so here are some thoughts from both sides. “As indie publishing continues to grow, more authors will maximize their royalties by distributing wide and reaching new audiences, rather than focusing only on Amazon,” said Kinga Jentetics of Publish Drive. “These new audiences may include the 1.8 billion Android users with Google Play Books, or even emerging markets such as Chinese stores.”
Ricardo Fayet, of Reedsy, sees things differently, “Despite 2018 being considered by many authors an awful year on the Kindle Store (between the scammers, the trademark wars, and the recent disappearance of Also Boughts), I remain quite optimistic about the Store for 2019. It’s important to remember that Amazon is a relatively young search engine (as opposed to, you know, Google). As such, it has a lot of room for algorithm improvement, especially through AI and machine learning. While Amazon’s dismissal of individual queries is infuriating, I do believe that their ranking and fraud detection algorithms will get better. Considering the amount of changes and testing going on right now on the Kindle Store, 2019 might be the year of a major Amazon update — which is definitely needed.”
Like so many things, it comes down to what’s best for your unique goals and situation. If your goal is to achieve long-term success and freedom as a writer, having a plan to be widely distributed at the cost of short-term profit will be the more appealing prospect for you. Authors who are already enjoying success within the Amazon ecosystem will likely continue to remain exclusive with Amazon. As Mark Coker points out in his annual address, the decision to become exclusive or not could have far-reaching implications for your career as well as the careers of other indie authors. So it’s worth taking the time to be clear on what is important to you and what your specific short-term and long-term goals are.
Traditional publishers will continue to see audiobook sales rise in 2019. 2017 saw significant growth in the audiobook industry, and 2018 continued the trend. Early 2018 saw strong audiobook sales improvements, and it doesn’t appear to have slowed. This is not surprising as our survey of readers found that “not having enough time to read” was a primary point of frustration expressed by readers. Listening to an audiobook solves this challenge as it expands the time available to read for many readers. Several major publishers saw lifts in audiobook sales in the third quarter of 2018, with Harper Collins seeing an impressive 55% rise in sales over the same quarter in 2017. With audio becoming more and more popular, traditional publishers will continue to invest in it.
What this means for you:
Readers will continue to flock to audio. Traditional publishers are paving the way to make audio more and more accessible to readers. You can benefit from this trend by creating a plan to invest in audio for your titles.
2019 will be a year in which independent authors en masse find success with audiobooks. “Opportunities with audiobooks continue to expand for indie authors and 2019 will see the ability to reach Storytel (through Findaway Voices), as well as developments with Apple Books audio and Kobo audio, on top of the expanded reach through Audible,” said Joanna Penn, The Creative Penn. Producing an audiobook isn’t cheap or easy, but more services are emerging to lower the barrier to entry. Until very recently Amazon had a lock on the market through both Audible and Apple Books but we anticipate their grip will loosen in 2019. Just two weeks ago, Findaway Voices announced that authors can now distribute their audiobooks directly to Apple Books at a 45% royalty rate. Changes like this signal good things to come for authors as companies jockey for business. This publishing industry trend is strengthened as authors also have newfound price control on several audiobook platforms. “More price control means we can get creative in promoting books: first-in-series free or deeply discounted; titles bundled at discounted prices; authors collaborating for free giveaways; more audio-specific marketing and advertising,” said Kelly Lytle of Findaway Voices. Other distributors and retailers are also focusing on audio. Christine Munroe at Kobo Writing Life notes that “KWL direct audio uploading will be our first major platform update of 2019. We’re exceptionally excited to add to the growing number of options authors have for reaching audiobook fans around the world.”
The audiobook landscape is about to get very exciting. As noted above, publishing an audiobook does require an investment of time and energy, but it also provides a path to diversifying your revenue streams. For authors who have decided to go exclusively with Amazon with their ebooks, publishing those same titles non-exclusively can provide a nice hedge for your business.
In 2019, authors that market their books often and early in the lifecycle will see success. This means authors will lean harder than ever on marketing techniques to achieve success. Indies are starting to market their books before release, or even before they start writing, according to Steven Spatz of Bookbaby. “During our last Self Publishing Survey, we asked top-selling authors to share some of their secrets to success,” Spatz said. “One of the most important findings: Over 80% of these successful authors started marketing their books before they began writing. Their mindset of “Promote then Publish” is spreading through the self-publishing community.” Marketing, in general, will become even more important as authors experience more competition for visibility. More resources and tools are available to authors than ever before, so naturally more writers will be able to make the transition to marketing their books.
It’s time to place marketing much earlier in your writing process. Think of ways to build anticipation and awareness, and make sure to engage and build your community of readers. Consider what your preorder strategy is. “Authors who do preorders earn more sales, and those that don’t are squandering their potential! This is an essential best practice that 80% of indie authors haven’t yet implemented,” according to Mark Coker at Smashwords. Don’t get discouraged when things don’t work, marketing is all about learning from failures. So, look for small insights or variations of a technique to try if the first shot doesn’t work.
Subscriptions will continue to grow within the publishing industry in 2019. Companies across many industries have found subscriptions to be very profitable and a great way to retain customers. Publishing is no different. “Keep an eye on the digital subscription services,” said Jane Friedman of HotSheet. “Whether brought to you by Amazon (Kindle Unlimited), Scribd, or Storytel, subscription-based consumption models for ebooks and digital audio have been enjoying significant growth—not to mention debate. Even traditional publishers admit that these services increase reader reach and revenue… the same is true for indie authors, assuming the quality is there.”
With these services gaining more subscribers, the value of distributing your books to them will increase. With the exception of Kindle Unlimited, most of these services do not require you to be exclusive to their platform, providing authors with yet another way to diversify their revenues.
Readers with specific interests will continue to be catered to as the eBook marketplace becomes even more crowded. Competition for readers is increasing as more and more books are published. Online distributors don’t have the inventory restrictions of physical bookstores, so, once a book is published, it is here to stay. It won’t get bumped off the shelf in favor of the next hot series. Authors will be increasingly incentivized to stick to their established genre as getting new readers becomes more difficult. Authors will also rely more on niche reader communities to share books with likeminded readers. Becoming a name in a specific niche will be one of the best drivers of sales. “If establishing your ‘Author Platform’ is like building a house, your online presence is the furniture, floor coverings and artwork that make your house a home,” said Steven Spatz of Bookbaby. “Start early to develop related content that enhances and spotlights your book in the form of blog posts, videos, audio and even interaction with readers.”
Find your community of readers and give them all you can. Finding readers for your books in broad genres will be very competitive, so try to distill your writing down to a more specific sub-genre. Targeting readers in your sub-genre can be more successful as there will be less competition, and you know these people like the subject matter you write about. Granted, finding a niche audience is easier said than done, but, if you commit to research and ask your readers for help, there’s room for growth.
You can argue that this will be a publishing industry trend for years to come. Most years a new technology emerges that captures the hearts and minds of early adopters everywhere. 2019 will be no different, according to Nate Hoffelder of The Digital Reader. “Tech will continue to be hyped as solutions to non-existent problems,” he said. “For example, blockchain will continue to be touted as the future, and authors will continue to market and sell their books just fine without it.” Hoffelder predicts “at least one new blockchain eBook startup will launch in 2019, and it will shut down in 2020 after it fails to attract market share and runs out of money.”
Hoffelder has some sage advice here, “Take the time to vet the claims made by new services so that you don’t fall for a scheme.” He’s right. Before dropping money on something new, vet the service with Writer Beware or see if there’s a way you can test it for free first. Nothing can derail a strategy quicker than relying on a faulty tool or platform.
2019 is sure to be another exciting year. Here’s a quick summary of our predicted publishing industry trends for 2019: Amazon Marketing Services (AMS) Ads will follow in Facebook’s steps and becomes an essential tool for independent authors. Book quality will be a key factor in success as readers have more options to choose from, so authors will invest more heavily in editing and cover design. As the market grows, more independent authors than ever will quit their day jobs and make all of their income from writing. The everlasting wide versus exclusive distribution debate will intensify even more as platforms battle for authors. Traditional publishers will see impressive gains in audiobook sales and will continue to invest in audio infrastructure. As traditional publishers pave the way and make audio more accessible to readers, some independent authors will start to see success with audiobooks. Successful authors will use more aggressive marketing techniques such as starting campaigns before a book is even written and running more campaigns after release. Subscription reading and listening services will continue to grow in 2019 as companies continue to push this lucrative model. Niche reader audiences will be better served than ever as authors find their fans and cater to them. And lastly, new technology and services in the publishing industry will continue to see ever-increasing hype in 2019.
That’s it! The top 10 publishing industry trends every author needs to know in 2019. What do you think we’ll see this year? Let us know in the comments below.
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Indies will START to see audio success? Indies have been KILLING it in audio for YEARS. Romance indie authors in particular are on fire in audio. You're way off on that one, but a good list otherwise.
Hi Marie - You are correct that some indies have been doing very well with audio for a while now. Romance authors, especially, tend to be trailblazers in the industry and within audio. We meant for the trend to reflect that indie authors, in general, will find success in audio. We've tweaked the wording in that trend to be more precise. Thanks for your feedback! Ricci
Great article. Thanks for the info!
Hi Ricci, I enjoyed your article on Author Trends. Over the past 3 years I've published 3 books on Amazon's web site and translated one of them to Portuguese, also on Amazon. I've used all of Amazon's advertising tools and had some success with one of the books. However, it seems like I really don't get it - switching the book around in different genres, changing the key words around, sponsored/product display ads, changing the bids/daily maximum, etc that I get for suggestions when I seek to improve sales. You must hear this all the time: "but I really want to write and not learn a whole new business." It's true with me - I was in business for 40 years and held off on what I love - writing. I am still learning the writing craft and am looking for ideas on "how do I break the code on selling books." What would be most helpful from Amazon would be a deeper understanding of their algorithms made simple. Do you have a few pointers that actually work? Thanks, Tom
Hi Tom, Thanks for your comment. I think you're right that a lot of authors feel that way. We're planning some posts for 2019 right now, and I think we'll certainly try to demystify AMS as much as we can.
Thanks for the great article. I'd love to see drill-downs into the audio and genre potential along the same lines. Also it would be terrific to get some sample game plans from successful authors, maybe one of the 1000 who hit the 100K mark. Some of us are good with audio (raising hand) and do well with writing, too, but don't have the glue yet to put it all together in the marketplace.
Hi Cece, glad you liked the article and thank you so much for the suggestion. It really helps us to know what authors are looking to learn more about. We will certainly take a deeper look at these topics in the future.
Thanks for the kind words, Cece. I love the idea of sample game plans from successful authors, we'll add that to our list of content pieces for 2019. In the past Bookbub has put case studies of author marketing plans on their blog which may be useful. And David Gaughran will often post a play-by-play of his marketing plans on his blog. I am also a fan of Joanna Penn's podcast as she regularly dives into the details with successful authors. I'm sure there are additional resources out there that other authors' would recommend. Hopefully they'll do so by replying to your comment.
Hello Ricci,
I am surprised that not more authors use AMS ads. I don't know of any online platform where you can get a solid click for 10 cents, that actually has the potential to become a sale. It's probably not easy to be successful in a crowded genre, however, the potential with Amazon is really huge.
What I was really missing in AMS ads is a good analytics tool. What Amazon has in place right now does not make an author happy. Tracking the success of ads is difficult.
Luckily there is a solution with the Book Ad Report, which gives authors a top-notch dashboard. It even includes a keyword optimization tool. Please check it out here:
https://bookadreport.com/
kind regards
Thomas Herold
I don’t wish to be too snarky, but I do find it funny that you focus on how books should be edited and typo-free, and yet your article has major typos in it. ??
You have both Indy and Indie as your spelling of that word. (It should be Indie).
You also have this mistake:
implemented.” according to Mark Coker at Smashwords.
It should, of course, be
implemented,” according to...
Anyway, I’m not normally one to focus much on typos and if I notice them, I don’t tend to point them out in the comment section because I don’t wish to be “that guy.” But I did find it a little ironic that I’m getting told to be typo-free and pay top dollar for an editor in an article that was apparently not proofread by anyone.
Best of luck. ~Erin
Hi Erin - Thanks for pointing out our typos, we have fixed them both. We had four people proofread the article and we found typos each time, which just goes to show how difficult it is to put out completely error-proof content, whether it be a book or an article. I also want to clarify that we are advocating that you invest in having your book edited, but that does not necessarily mean you have to "pay top dollar". There are many affordable copy editors out there as well as loyal readers who are willing to proofread books at no cost. What's most important is that you get multiple eyes on your manuscript and that you continue to fix typos post-publication when readers write in. Thanks for your feedback, Ricci
My first novel TO LEAVE A MEMORY had three different "paid professional editors," and it still had typos when I published it. I've made quite a few corrections since, but I'll bet there are still some typos three years later. My second novel OUT AND IN: a mystery-thriller also had three different paid professional editors, and it still had typos when I published, in fact, a typo on PAGE ONE. All this is due to the fact that so called "professional editors" are not as competent as a traditional publishing house team of developmental editors, copy editors, and proofreaders. Being an Indie author is extremely frustrating in terms of finding excellent editors/proofreaders, especially since we have to PAY EVERYBODY for their work, as in several thousand dollars, and then there are still typos. Blessings to all.
I hate to burst your bubble Pat, but traditional house aren't any better. I find typo's in books from Penguin Random House and the other big houses all the time.
Someone has to much time on their hands.
Great article, Ricci. I appreciate your insights and suggestions. Just curious though, what was your record on the 10 predictions for 23018?
Great question Randy. I'd give us an 8 out of 10 for our 2018 predictions.
Those predictions that we believe came true in 2018 are:
- Indie authors will continue to grow ebook share
- Marketing will become more expensive
- Everyone will talk about going “Direct to Reader”
- The Audiobook market will grow and be shaken up
- Amazon’s affiliate program will continue to be less generous
- Amazon’s challenge with scammers will continue
- Readers will continue to buy and read books
- More Indie authors will achieve success
Those predictions that we don't have data to support one way or the other:
- New subscription services will pop up but more authors will join KU.
- Email marketing will be tested
Thank you WWM for a huge amount of info! In part 4 on distribution channels, WWM mentions Google Play Books. I thought GPB only allowed publishers to use their site? Have any self-published authors been allowed to post on GPB? Please let us know. Thanks
Hi James, yes self-published authors can distribute on Google Play Books. It looks like they are only accepting a limited number at this time, so you have to fill out an application form. Here's the link: https://play.google.com/books/publish/
Hi Ricci
Please let me know some best book marketing agencies to market my first book The Cinderella Elephant (short stories)
Regards
Ricci,
There are so many titles/categories available in ebook format. It would be helpful in all of these suggestions for authors, to have input in fiction vs non-fiction. For example in the 1000 authors who topped $100,000 in sales earnings, as provided by Amazon, how many of those sales/authors were fiction or non-fiction. For me, that would provide a more realistic insight into what works in the fiction market, as far as AMS. Just a thought...
Hey Carla, I couldn't agree more. It would be great to have that information but, unfortunately, we weren't able to find it. As far as we know, Besos has only revealed broad numbers without a breakdown.
All of the above trends are interesting, but let's looks at the reality indie authors face. First of all, editing, books covers and all similar services are expensive. The quotes for my first book were from $800.00 to $2,500.00 for the editing. That is quite an investment if you are writing for the love of the craft, not money. And, as to money, yes, some indie authors may make a living at self-publishing, but they are few and far between. In reality, one had better plan on losing money by the time you buy a professional cover, which I do recommend, and then pay for editing and the other services. Unless you have a blockbuster, it will not be a winning proposition. As to the other sites on which you can publish, I tried Google Play and never got the book to download, even after getting repeated help from their "experts". For days, the payment portion of Kobo's website was down. Barnes & Noble took days to download, but it finally worked. I had zero sales and they have no way to promote your book. Publishing on Amazon was a breeze, so, Amazon is still king, by far. As for promotion, I have a background in marketing so my promotions have been successful. I have over 4,000 sales on Amazon, over 10,000 Kindle pages read and 83 Goodreads customers have added my book. I published only 4 months ago. But, once again, you must do your research because all promotional sites are not equal. Look for the ones with the most readers and followers. Generally, you get what you pay for. Let's not paint a falsely, rosy picture for indie authors. It's expensive, not simple and, most likely, you won't make a living doing it. Like any other nascent industry, self-publishing has a long way to go. But, if you are like me and you write because that is who you are and you love the process, you will do it whether anyone reads your work or not. I must say though, hearing that readers enjoy your book is a real thrill. So, regardless of the pitfalls, I will persevere!
Hi Julie, thanks for your insight. That's a great point on self-publishing being a young industry, and it is evidenced by the issues you and other authors see with distribution platforms and other tools. It seems clear that other distributors have to step up their game if they want to compete with Amazon. The last thing authors need is more headaches in the distribution and marketing process. I also agree that self-publishing is far from easy. It wasn't the intention to make self-publishing seem like an effortless profession, but authors are inspiring and find new ways to succeed each year.
So agree, Julie! Like you, I was a marketing executive and thought I knew enough to make a killing in indie publishing, then quickly found out there is no answer. Part of the problem is the absolute glut of books on Amazon, where Amazon itself competes with imprints like Lake Union. Some oddball genres sell better than others, but for mainstream fiction like mine, most indie novels quickly descend to a ranking of 3,000,000th if authors do not market it at a pretty penny, and do free or $0.99 promos with expensive paid ads on top sites like BookBub (if you could even get a "partner deal.") This business is not for anybody who needs to make a living. And there is no discovery fairy out there who is going to swoop in and make it a best-seller. As for a tax write-off, IRS will tell you it's an expensive "hobby" after you've had losses for three years. So, writing must be your heart, mind, and soul. Otherwise, forgettaboutit.
I know plenty of authors who are making full-time livings indie publishing. I’ve been doing it for seven years with four employees helping me behind the scenes. Many others are doing great too. You don’t hear as much about the authors who are killing it because they are busy writing more books.
Absolutely correct Pat. I hope those with big dreams are fairly forewarned. I will see what write off advantages I have for my first year losses soon.
I agree with this 100%. How many indie authors are there? 100,000 is a conservative estimate, I think, since there are at least one million indie books on Amazon alone. So if 1% of indie authors made $100,000 in 2017, and that's an improvement over previous years, the situation is dire for anyone who expects to make a living at this. Is there any other industry where fewer than 1% of the players make a living wage? You have to love what you're doing, tailor your expectations, and have another source (or other sources) of income--and of course live in hope that you'll become one of the rare exceptions to the indie earning rule.